A Reminder to Hodl: Bitcoin’s 68% Retracement Isn’t Unusual

PMBC Group’s client, Blocktrade Capital, was featured on Hacked.

Much has been written about bitcoin’s meteoric price collapse over the past six months. The decline has been so severe that many have questioned whether bitcoin’s long-term supporters (hodl’ers) have lost their resolve. However, a careful evaluation of bitcoin’s previous bear markets reveals that the latest retracement isn’t out of the ordinary.

According to Ben Marks, CEO of Blocktrade Capital, the nine previous bitcoin corrections had an average retracement of 64%. For corrections lasting longer than 50 days, the average reversal is 76%. Based on this analysis, $6,000 represents the midpoint of both time frames (as a refresher, bitcoin peaked above $19,700 in December).

Whether you call it intrinsic value or fundamentals, bitcoin is supporting a global marketplace that extends far beyond what traders do. In fact, “investment coins” now represent half of the total money supply in blockchain, down from 72% over the past year.


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